Effect Of Human Behavior On Evolution Of Viral Strains During An Epidemic

Human behavior can change as a reaction to disease observed in others, and  such behavioral changes can be  an important factor in the spread of an epidemic. Human behavioral traits in disease avoidance are under selection in the presence of infectious diseases.

We explore a complimentary trend the pathogen might experience a force of selection to become asymptomatic in the presence of human behavioral trends. Using a stochastic SIR agent-based model, we investigated the co-evolution of two viral strains with cross-immunity, where the resident strain is symptomatic while the mutant strain is asymptomatic. Assuming that individuals exercised social distancing behavior if one of their neighbors was infected with a symptomatic strain, we observe that the proportion of asymptomatic carriers increased over time with a stronger effect corresponding to higher levels of social distancing.

        Fig: The proportion of asymptomatic cases will increase as social distancing levels increase.

Publications:

• Komarova, N. L., Azizi, A., & Wodarz, D. (2021). Network models and the interpretation of prolonged infection plateaus in the COVID19 pandemic. Epidemics, 35, 100463.
  
  
• Azizi, A., Komarova, N. L., & Wodarz, D. (2021). Effect of human behavior on the evolution of viral strains during an epidemic. bioRxiv.

Collaborators
Natalia Komarova (University of California Irvine), Dominik Wodarz (University of California Irvine).